Let's not bury the lede: Fares are up. After price spikes in spring and summer, we collectively hoped for a "great cheapening" of flights, but here we are. Deals are still out there for that shoulder season we know and love, in addition to Thanksgiving (international, we're looking at you) and even winter holidays. This year, it might just take a little more digging (and patience and flexibility) to find them.
Here's what to actually expect this shoulder season, why Thanksgiving week still deserves its reputation as the hidden best week for international travel, and why the window for a decent holiday fare is closing faster than usual, all according to Going flight expert Ren Newman.
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Shoulder season has always been the sweet spot between peak and off-peak, with fewer crowds, milder weather, and a breath of lower-priced fresh air. Mostly, you're still going to find a shoulder season this year. The good news: You'll still be able to find those low deals. The less-good news: There will almost certainly be fewer of them.
Here's a quick breakdown of what you should feel comfortable paying for tickets this shoulder season depending on your destination.
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A few ways to actually score the deal: |
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Be flexible with dates, more than usual.
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Book trips of at least 7 days. Short trips get priced like business travel, and airlines know it.
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Reposition yourself. If you're near enough to a major hub, take a drive, train, or short flight there to unlock more and cheaper fares.
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Stock up on points now. Award rates haven't inflated at the same pace as cash fares for the holidays. A healthy points balance now pays off later. Keep an eye on programs changing their redemption charts. Flying Blue is the most recent to shift structure.
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Use the Greek Islands Trick. Cross the ocean as cheaply as possible, then take a short flight, train, drive, or ferry to your final destination.
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Set a Price Alert if your dates are fixed. You can do this in the Going app. If you book a standard economy ticket or higher (not basic), you can often cancel free and rebook at the lower fare.
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International: Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece, the ABC islands, and Scandinavia are all seeing nice fare dips for shoulder season. Japan and Southeast Asia are also worth watching, as well as Mexico (outside of Día de Muertos).
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Domestic: Hawaii, Florida, Phoenix, the Pacific Northwest, Atlanta, the Carolinas, and San Diego are showing softer prices. Skip the ski towns and traditional hotspots. Jackson Hole and Aspen aren't playing along right now.
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Note: These price dips aren't limited to shoulder season. The same destinations are showing softer fares of varying degrees throughout the Thanksgiving and winter holiday season. |
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Thanksgiving is a major example of where domestic and international travel move in opposite directions. Millions of people flying home for turkey means millions of seats to Europe, Mexico, and beyond that airlines need to fill. Their move: Slash the fare.
The timing works in your favor too. Most schools and plenty of workplaces give the whole week off. Land in Europe, and you'll catch the first wave of Christmas markets, with weather that's still manageable. And because late November is off-peak almost everywhere internationally, the savings extend past the flight to hotels, rental cars, and activities, too.
You may not see Going deals explicitly labeled "Thanksgiving," but that doesn't mean they're not out there. Don't wait for one to land in your inbox with the holiday's name on it. Set a Price Alert on the routes you want, and let the deals come to you.
When it comes to Thanksgiving this year, if you're bound by specific dates and see a fare that works, book it. Opt for standard economy over basic if you can swing it, as it gives you the ability to cancel and rebook for free if a better price pops up. And be sure to check award fares. Those tend to open up last-minute as airlines release seats or other travelers change plans.
If you're staying domestic this Thanksgiving, target the edges of the holiday, not the middle. The days right before and the weekend after are the priciest, as that's when everyone's racing about. The weekend before and week after tend to be calmer.
Bonus: Travelers living near a border can reposition through Canada or Tijuana (we've just added Toronto, Vancouver, and Tijuana as departure airports in the Going app!). International fares out of these hubs are often cheaper than flying the same route out of a comparable US hub. Asia from Toronto and Vancouver and Europe from Tijuana are the ones worth checking.
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Winter holidays: Last call! |
If you're booking travel over Thanksgiving, Christmas, or New Year, it's time to get it in gear. Holiday airfare is up 10-22% year over year.
The Goldilocks Window for peak season travel (the sweet spot when deals are most likely to pop up) is 3-5 months out for domestic trips and 4-10 months out for international. For domestic, that means booking by the end of August at the latest. International gives you a bit more room, into early October, but that gap is closing fast.
A couple of easy wins if you're still deciding: Flying on a holiday itself can save up to 25% compared to the days around it, and setting a Price Alert means you can stop refreshing search results. Instead, the fares come to you.
Bottom line: If your holiday plans are set, this is the time to book, not the time to keep watching.
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Places to visit this season |
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Share with a fellow travel lover by forwarding to a friend. |
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