"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong."

There's a quote attributed to John Maynard Keynes:
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong."
I see how this plays out in the way consulting firms approach marketing.
There are two types of firms:
Directionally right and precisely wrong ones.
What drives precisely wrong firms is their need for certainty.
Uncertainty is scary.
But business and marketing are uncertain domains by their nature.
That's why their executives cling to some beliefs and playbooks.
And they over-optimize for unimportant things.
So they get the illusion of certainty.
But it makes them precisely wrong.
On the other side, you have directionally right firms.
They know one thing:
As long as they get the big things right, the rest will take care of itself.
Even if some details are not optimized.
That's why they are never fixated on certain tactics.
They are comfortable with short-term uncertainty.
And directionally right firms always win in the long term.
What exactly makes a firm one or the other?
Hundreds of decisions in their firms, shaped by the beliefs of their executive teams.
You can even call it culture.
It manifests in three major ways:
1. Optimizing for strategy vs. over-optimizing for tactics
Directionally right firms know the "direction" they choose matters the most.
Many directions can work, and there are many ways to get to each.
But they have to make a choice.
In concrete terms, they have to decide on:

"What's the ideal client profile we want to serve to grow further?"
"What services should we provide to them?"
"What problems and outcomes will we message on?"
"What will our pricing level and model be?"
"What's our funnel to reach new prospects consistently and stay top of mind?"
"What three key metrics should we track to know everything is working?"

And making a choice on these means cutting out all the other options.
It feels limiting at first.
But it liberates the firm from a thousand other decisions.
So they can get where they want to go without any distractions.
Precisely wrong firms do the opposite.
They avoid the big decisions because they are scary.
And they choose the illusory safety of over-optimizing for tactics:

"Should we launch a podcast, try TikTok, or run ChatGPT ads?"
"How should we write our hooks to get more engagement?"
"How many posts should we publish a week?"
"What marketing 'workflows' can we automate using AI agents?"

So even though they might get results here and there, the firm doesn't get anywhere.
Because they were lost from the beginning.
2. Optimizing for return vs. over-optimizing for cost reduction
Directionally right firms are focused on value.
They know cost is relative.
What matters is what you get back from every invested dollar.
That's why they are not afraid to experiment.
And when they find winning channels, campaigns, or methods, they double down to capture more value.
But precisely wrong firms see everything as a cost.
They compare channels by cost per lead and pick the cheapest.
Or they avoid channels if their entry cost seems high.
They are also afraid of experimentation, since they associate it with losing.
This makes them timid.
Sometimes they even break what's already working for the sake of reducing costs.
A few months later, they wonder where all the pipeline went.
In the end, they keep their budgets safe while staying stuck for years.
3. Optimizing for long term vs. over-optimizing for short term
Directionally right firms play the game for the long term.
So they are willing to take long-term actions that might have a slow start, but will bring the highest returns over time.
Like doing thought leadership and balancing pull and push marketing.
They also take an economic crisis, an underperforming campaign, or a new trend affecting their industry with grace.
They question if their chosen direction is still right.
And as long as they believe in it, they keep going while adapting with minor changes.
They know there are ups and downs in the short term.
But what matters is their progress in the long run.
This allows them to not only be resilient, but even gain from these short-term fluctuations.
Sometimes by learning from them.
Sometimes by capturing a stronger position in the market.
But precisely wrong firms are over-focused on months and quarters.
They chase results today.
So they take actions that might bring some immediate results, even if they damage their returns in the long run.
Like annoying cold emails, automated messages, or AI-generated content.
And as they don't have a clear direction, they make big changes with every fluctuation.
They give up on channels if they don't get quick results.
Or they jump on a trend if everybody else is doing the same.
After all, if everybody is doing it, it must be safe.
Yesterday sustainability, today AI, tomorrow something else.
So they never build authority in the market.
Because they don't stand for anything.
---
The moral of the story?
I don't know if the quote really belongs to Keynes.
But I agree with it.
It's better to be directionally right than precisely wrong.
Precisely wrong firms choose the illusion of certainty, while sacrificing real results without knowing it.
Directionally right firms choose real results by getting the big things right, even if it feels uncertain and risky.
The good news is both are states, rather than fixed traits.
Any firm can become directionally right.
But only if their executives change their beliefs.

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1. Optimizing for strategy vs. over-optimizing for tactics

2. Optimizing for return vs. over-optimizing for cost reduction

3. Optimizing for long term vs. over-optimizing for short term

​Why does your consulting firm have deep expertise but an unpredictable pipeline?

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Why does your consulting firm have deep expertise but an unpredictable pipeline?

In case you missed it: