👋 Hey - Egemen here. |
Getting crazy out there. |
The median seed round in 2025 closed at $4M raised on a $20M post-money valuation. |
That's not a seed by 2018 standards. That's a Series A. |
Here's a snapshot of what's on the menu today: |
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The seed game has split into two markets that share a name and almost nothing else. |
At the top, the 95th percentile seed round in 2025 raised $16.6M at an $80.5M post-money. That's nearly 3x the 95th percentile valuation in 2019. |
At Y Combinator's March 2026 Demo Day, eight-week-old companies were pricing rounds at $5M on $40M post. |
One investor told TechCrunch he was writing $3-4M checks at $25-30M post for seed rounds where founders already had $2M+ in revenue and signed enterprise pilots. |
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At the bottom, capital is concentrating. Across all US startups that closed a round in 2025, the bottom 50% took home just 14% of total cash, per Carta. |
At the seed stage specifically, AI captured 42% of capital, up from 23% pre-ChatGPT. If you're not in the top half by ARR, AI moat, or pedigree, you're not raising a seed. |
You're raising a pre-seed with a Series A label slapped on it. It's total madness! |
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She's right. The numbers say so. |
If you're going out for a $2M check at a $10M post in 2026, the math has moved. |
VCs aren't writing three $3M checks anymore. |
They're writing one $9M check to the founder with the better story. |
The check size you used to call a seed is what investors now call passing on it. |
Be honest about where you stand. If you're not in the top half by metrics, raise less, dilute less, and stop calling it a seed. |
👉 Seed is the new Series A. Pre-seed is the new seed. Stop pricing yourself off the 2018 ladder. |
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